Though ‘Cyber Monday’ is technically today, I can’t help but think Black Friday’s online shopping results – a day traditionally focused on in-store sales numbers - are at least as telling as the consumer clues we’ll find when today’s (and the weekend’s) spending results are tallied.

In any case, we can already start drawing some conclusions based on Black Friday’s numbers.

First and foremost it’s not a myth - online shopping is indeed hurting traditional bricks-and-mortar retailers… even the ones with shopping-enabled websites. As such, this holiday shopping season could be a very good one for Amazon.com (AMZN) and certain other e-commerce sites.

Simultaneously, focused specialty stores with online shopping – like Best Buy (BBY) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) - are also doing some big business over the web, while department store websites like Macy’s (M) and Nordstrom’s (JWN) aren’t closing much business despite luring browsers in.

Here are the vital stats we know about Black Friday so far:

1. Average dollars spent per online order was up 35% on Black Friday, while the number of items purchased per online order was up 18%.
2. Jewelry, specialty apparel, and technology sites did very well, increasing average order sizes by more than 20%.
3. Department store sites drew lots more traffic (triple-digit increases in some cases), but saw a 7.2% decline in the size of each order.
4. Black Friday’s total online sales jumped 11%.
5. In-store foot traffic was up 13% this year, but, per-shopper spending was down 8%. Overall revenue was up a puny 0.5%.

Jewelry and electronics were also hot items, online as well as in the stores.

Conclusions? Whereas last year, no retailers posted decent Q4 results, this year, there’s apt to be a lot of disparity. The deciding factors will be the merchandise category itself. That’s great news for some, and bad news for others.

Clearly Amazon - the undisputed web traffic leader on Friday – is enjoying the consumer migration from the stores to the Internet. But, not all online retailers are enjoying the trend, simply because they can’t recreate the selection and pricing structure that Amazon can.

Abercrombie and Best Buy are winning for the other reason…..  demand for labels and features regardless of prices, and/or being able to offer something nobody else can.

The department stores – whether it’s a low-ender like Wal-Mart (WMT) or a high-ender like Bloomingdale’s, aren’t able to satisfy consumers on either front…. not price, nor choice. Thus, they may be big disappointments this year, while several other retailers are surprisingly successful.

The consumers’ migration to the web underscores yet another flaw in the department stores’ strategy that worked for years, but is now beginning to fail. Department stores for years relied in the attraction to the entire shopping experience… choice, environment, touch, sound, service, etc. It’s not entirely unlike the approach casinos take to make sure the whole environment is subtly compelling to get and keep you in the door. It worked for broad line retailers for decades, but the tactic is less and less effective each year as consumers become wiser and have more choice.

Anyway, I think the data so far is painting a pretty clear picture about who’s going to win and lose the holiday shopping war.

Now, I said all of that so I could responsibly show you the ‘Chart of the Day’…. an image I found at Permuto that lays out the reality of retail spending this year. It’s too big to add in the body of this post, so click here to see it.